Wednesday, April 18, 2012

It's worth remembering


"Instrumental temperature data for the pre-satellite era (1850-1980) have been so widely, systematically, and uni-directionally tampered with that it cannot be credibly asserted there has been any significant “global warming” in the 20th century." - Anthony Watts (June 2nd 2010)

"The world is warming. It has been for centuries. Rather than saying anything about anthropogenic global warming, all the BEST dataset does is confirms that. How that’s gotten twisted into some supposed “victory” for the AGW crowd escapes me." - Willis Eschenbach (October 22nd 2011)


How indeed Willis. It's as if the Skeptics had been denying the warming at some point isn't it?





Sunday, April 15, 2012

Putting Their Heads Above The Parapet

This might not be the best title to choose for this post. The expression has roots in defenders of a castle putting their heads above the parapet and risking being shot and I know how much some climate deniers love to play the victim and claim their critics are threatening them. So my use of this title is really putting my own head above the parapet (safe in the knowledge few will read it anyway)

That amused me so I kept the title. Just to emphasize: no violence of any kind is implied in the title. The expression is meant in it's proper metaphorical sense: Exposing ones arguments to scrutiny and criticism.

This is a post just to record a thought I've been having. Climate skeptics largely keep to their own. Even on the odd occasion where their yappings make it all the way out of their little blog world into the "media" it's usually just The Telegraph or the Daily Mail. Yes that can be damaging to the public's understanding of the science, but usually no-one important takes the Daily Mail or Delingpoles's rantings seriously enough to respond.

But, if the deniers push the misinformation too far, it does get the attention of experts. And that's often when a smack-down occurs. A backlash that ends up damaging them. Think about the time when they managed to trick Dr Richard Muller into investigating the surface temperature record. How did that work out for them? And that recent "49 astronauts" letter only ended up getting a stiff rebuttle from the chief scientist at NASA. And who can forget when scientists at the NOAA analyzed Watt's SurfaceStation project data.

Almost every time the deniers put their heads above the parapet it ends up badly for them. They certainly do want the limelight, but when they get it, it often backfires. So it seems to me that there is a sweet-spot for climate denialism. Push misinformation so it gets noticed by the public, but not so far that it gets the attention of experts. And that means climate denial will never be popular. Like an immune system* the world does respond to toxic misinformation, but only if it becomes chronic. The comings and goings on the likes of WUWT, Jo Nova, Steven Goddard, Inhofe, and all the other little blogs are just too small fry to receive that response.

For anyone who really cares about reducing climate denial, the fix in my opinion is to lower the parapet. The tolerance of the world's immune system to scientific misinformation has to be lowered. More of the BS skeptics come up with have to be addressed, perhaps even stuff that doesn't make it off their blogs. Once they start receiving damage they will slowly grind to an irrelevance.

How can this be done? I have for a long time advocated a government funded body tasked solely to address the arguments du-jour skeptics make on blogs like WUWT. It could even operate under the IPCC as tasked with addressing skeptic arguments. The deniers can't really argue against that because they operate under the pretense that they are raising serious concerns they want answers to.

Half a million or so per annum of international funding for such a body could produce amazing value in terms of reducing the toxic impact of denial misinformation**. If members the public and journalists know of and can visit an official site that regularly details and debunks denialist misinformation it would become largely neutralized. The fact is that working scientists and even working people like me, don't have the time to analyze WUWT in a timely fashion nor the ability to prominently show our results and hold them to task.

*Typically victim-card carrying climate deniers would at this point accuse me of comparing them to viruses (yes the word is viruses, virii is pedantic)

**The caveat is I can't quantify their impact on public perception. How many people who aren't hell-bent ideologues really take climate deniers seriously? They could just be preaching to the choir. Perhaps ignoring them is the right move.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Hysterical Deniers Getting Desperate And Playing The Victim

This concerns the NASA 50 affair. Same old fake-experts propaganda shit the deniers are so fond of pushing to trick the public.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/NASA-climate-denialist-letter.html
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/on-astronauts-nasa-and-climate-concerns/

What's amusing this time is that the recipient of the letter has slapped them down. Climate deniers like P Gosselin at the ironically named "NoTricksZone" thrive off deniers being treated with respect. It gives them an undeserved aura of importance and respectability, so they really hate being slapped down . What they probably wanted was no reply so they could play the victim and claim they were being ignored. Or second best an official polite response they could cite saying "see they took the complaint seriously!".

But what they got instead was the slap down.  Here's the money shot of Abdalati's response: "“If the authors of this letter disagree with specific scientific conclusions made public by NASA scientists, we encourage them to join the debate in the scientific literature or public forums rather than restrict any discourse,”"

See he's just exposed the letter for what it is - an attempt to censor scientists and he's even snidely pointed out that the authors are avoiding true debate. So predictably neither Watts nor P Gosselin can stand this response.

Rather than backing down Gosselin hilariously try to twist Abdalati's response into a new scandal for their yapping audience. Gosselin in particular goes to town with oddly distasteful hyperbole stating:

Sheesh – no wonder the Challenger blew up! Have they not learned anything?

and

"Abdalati’s handling of this matter is a scandal, and is on par with a CEO ignoring a letter from 50 women managers bringing up sexual harassment issues."

http://notrickszone.com/2012/04/12/nasa-abdalatis-response-to-50-esteemed-professionals-is-managerial-negligence-an-embarrassment/


Talk about TRYING to hard to whip up a scandal. If there's two things climate deniers love doing it's a) playing the victim and b) whipping up a fake scandal.


And you know the best bit about this? They've already failed. This hot denial meme is now totally dead.

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Steven Goddard

http://www.real-science.com/the-hansen-hockey-stick

he does this:

But he didn't check this:

 I would write more but it's not even that surprising is it? 

Monday, March 26, 2012

Denier Lies and the Conspiracy Nuts Who Spread Them

The Chronology Of A Lie
The following serves as an example for fence-sitters out there of what me and others mean when we talk about a climate denier echo machine. Witness how step by step climate deniers turn a scientific result into misinformation and spread it around the dark corners of the Internet until it reaches the media and the public.

First a paper is published
"An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula" Earth and Planetary Science Letters

A Press Release is made
"Scientists use rare mineral to correlate past climate events in Europe, Antarctica"  Syracuse University Press Release (March 22nd)

In part these press releases are supposed to help the public understand the science better. However through no fault of the University this one will end up being used for the opposite effect. What follows makes a very good case for university media relations departments to preempt and cover possible climate denier distortions of papers.

The Machine Spins Up
"More evidence the Medieval Warm Period was global" Wattsupwiththat.com (March 22nd)

A Little More
"Medieval warming WAS global – new science contradicts IPCC" - www.theregister.co.uk (March 23rd)

We are now in full flow. See the hits you get if you google the Register headline "Medieval warming WAS global". LOTS of hits. This is the infamous echo chamber. Check the top hits:
  1. www.theregister.co.uk
  2. www.infowars.com
  3. www.davidicke.com
  4. www.prisonplanet.com
  5. www.climatedepot.com
  6. www.freerepublic.com
Is it really a coincidence that the top hits are all to extremist conspiracy theorist sites? No, it's a reflection of the true demographic of climate deniers. Some people wrongly think climate deniers are all paid shills for industry. No, very few of them are. The vast bulk of climate deniers are ideological crazies.

And Today The Story Reaches the Media

"Is this finally proof we're NOT causing global warming? The whole of the Earth heated up in medieval times without human CO2 emissions, says new study" www.dailymail.co.uk (March 26th)

Notice how with each step the misinformation gets exaggerated a little bit more. In the first iteration it's merely claimed that the paper is "evidence" that the medieval warm period was global. In the second iteration this becomes the medieval warm period "WAS" global. Finally the DailyMail article adds the suggestion "is this proof we're not causing global warming?". Each iteration of the story is spread around the internet. The next iteration will probably be performed by the moronic unpaid henchmen of the denialist machine - the readers and commenters of their blogs and media articles - who will exaggerate the misinformation even further to it's logical end. Shrill letters will pop up in local papers wide and far screaming "A recent paper proved man isn't causing global warming!".

And that's the climate denial echo machine in action. It's not a designed machine run by some nefarious entity, it's an emergent shitstorm of uninformed drones parroting misinformation at each other and eventually it bleeds out into the sane parts of the world.

Those who should know better (?)
The Global Warming Policy Foundation pushes it anyway.
http://thegwpf.org/science-news/5284-medieval-warming-was-global--new-study-contradicts-ipcc.html

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Is Anthony Watts Helping Christopher Monckton Avoid Debate On Climate?

Have you heard the one about climate skeptics wanting a debate on climate?

Well they got their wish but it was a disaster for them. Draw this Josh: Monckton fleeing the country and Anthony Watts bolting down WUWT.


Will Monckton return to the debate? I hope not because then I can deploy my modified Brave Sir Robin song:
Brave Sir Monckton ran away.
Bravely ran away away.
When debate reared it's ugly head,
He bravely turned his tail and fled.


And I suspect he won't return to the debate because as mentioned earlier Watts has bolted the WUWT door to Hadfield/Potholer54:

REPLY: While I can’t hear what Hadfield is saying (he sounds like a British mumble to me) they seem totally infatuated with their manhunt, so much for Hadfield’s repeated claims of being “dispassionate and logical”. Thanks for posting this. When he starts colluding with that hateful “greenman”, all semblance of rational debate is destroyed.
This video then cements my decision not to provide any further space to Hadfield here. – Anthony
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/23/moncktons-slide-presentation-to-the-california-assembly/#comments

Of course we can't debate people who are infatuated with a mannhunt. Oops typo there. But really. Take a good look at that logic. All semblance of rational debate is destroyed. How? By hadfield being interviewed by greenman. What exactly is Anthony Watt's idea of "rational debate" that it could be destroyed in such a way.

Perhaps the debate simply isn't important enough. As Monckton puts it: "Many people like to engage in debates on inconsequentialities". What are these "inconsequentialities"? Only the underlying validity of the claims that Monckton goes on tour with to convince vast numbers of people that climate change is not a threat. Who cares whether those claims are valid? That's just inconsequential.